If you’ve felt like the Ontario market is “in between chapters,” you’re not imagining it.
TRREB’s newest release (February 4, 2026) explains why so many people are hesitating—even though buyers have more choice and affordability has improved compared to peak years:
The market isn’t being driven by hype right now. It’s being driven by confidence.
Confidence in the economy. Confidence in job stability. Confidence that committing to a mortgage payment won’t feel risky six months from now.
Here’s what TRREB shared—and what it means for buyers, sellers, and homeowners heading into 2026.
THE BIG PICTURE: 2026 IS FORECASTED TO STAY STABLE (FOR NOW)
TRREB’s 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review report points to a market shaped by two forces happening at the same time:
✅ Improved buyer choice and negotiating power
✅ Cautious consumer sentiment due to affordability pressure + uncertainty
TRREB expects elevated supply levels to keep price growth in check through 2026, and overall sales activity to land in a similar range compared to the last three years—with potential improvement later in the year if confidence strengthens.
TRREB’S 2026 OUTLOOK
1) Sales
- GTA home sales are expected to range between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions in 2026.
- The first half of the year is expected to look similar to 2025 (cautious buyers).
- If the economy stays resilient and confidence improves later in the year, pent-up demand from the past several years could begin to return.
2) Prices
- TRREB forecasts average GTA price between $1,000,000 and $1,030,000 in 2026.
- Elevated inventory means buyers keep negotiating power.
- TRREB expects prices could be lower year-over-year in the first half of 2026 and then stabilize later in the year if conditions tighten.
Translation: the market isn’t expected to “boom” out of nowhere. It’s expected to stay controlled—until confidence changes.
THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE REPORT (THAT MOST PEOPLE WILL SKIP)
- Homebuying intentions for 2026 declined to 22% (down five points vs. 2025), despite improved affordability.
- 45% of intending buyers are first-time buyers—meaning first-time buyers could be the driver that helps the market recover later in the year.
- Rental demand is expected to stay strong, supported in part by immigration.
- Renters face a gap of nearly $600/month between what would be an “affordable” mortgage payment and what they’d need to buy the type of home they want.
This is why the market feels strange:
It’s not that people don’t want homes.
It’s that they don’t want risk.
JANUARY 2026 SNAPSHOT (GTA)
- Home sales: 3,082 (down 19.3% vs January 2025)
- New listings: 10,774 (down 13.3% year-over-year)
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: down 8% year-over-year
- Average selling price: $973,289 (down 6.5% vs January 2025)
What this means: activity is cautious, and buyers still have negotiating power—especially in segments with more supply. For sellers, the market is rewarding homes that are priced correctly and positioned confidently from day one.
📍 Market Highlights: Bolton & Caledon
Bolton Market Snapshot
🏘 Towns: $794,375 | 33 DOM | 97%
🏠 Semis: $859,750 | 12 DOM | 98%
🏡 Detached 3 bed: $908,750 | 40 DOM | 96.5%
🏡 Detached 4 plus bed: $1,105,750 | 11 DOM | 97.7%
Caledon Market Snapshot
🏘 Towns: $785,712 | 43 DOM | 97.8%
🏠 Semis: $820,000 | 41 DOM | 96%
🏡 Detached 3 bed: $1,061,500 | 83 DOM | 93%
🏡 Detached 4+ bed: $1,389,111 | 51 DOM | 95%
📍 Muskoka
While we are heading to the end of winter (as I type this there are officially 37 days until Spring) many folks are still taking advantage of the snow to explore the area with a different perspective. Muskoka doesn’t shut down when the temperatures drop, we get out and play! Regardless of the season, Buyers are looking to Muskoka for their personal piece of heaven.
Why should I act now??? Real estate activity may slow in the colder seasons but never stops. Right now there are some fantastic properties on the market with new ones coming on the system daily for 2026. It’s time to actively begin your property search, confirm your figures for your current buying power with your lender and learn about the areas you are interested in from knowledgeable local agents who can help guide you to discover the hidden treasures buried beneath the snow.
Buyers are actively searching, and often folks wonder about the sale price compared to the asking price. We give it in % which often helps buyers budget what they might be paying for their dream property. For January the Sale to List ratio was 96.8% (96.7% )* for non waterfront and 95.9% (94.5%) * for waterfront properties.
What This Means If You’re Buying in 2026
If you’re a buyer, the conditions TRREB is describing are exactly what buyers ask for during peak cycles:
- more selection
- more negotiating power
- less pressure to make rushed decisions
But here’s the key: the best windows often happen before confidence becomes obvious.
Because once people start feeling “safe” again, activity tends to pick up quickly—and the market shifts from negotiation to competition.
If you’re considering buying in 2026, the smartest move isn’t predicting the perfect month…
It’s getting prepared so you can act when the right home shows up.
What This Means If You’re Selling in 2026
If you’re selling, this is not the market for guessing.
Buyers are cautious and value-driven, which means:
- pricing has to be defensible from day one
- presentation matters (buyers compare more now)
- marketing has to be strong enough to make your home feel like a confident decision
Buyers are still buying—but they’re buying with logic first.
WANT THE BEST NEXT STEP?
If you’re even thinking about a move in 2026, the best first step is understanding what your home type is doing right now—not what the average headline says…
Book your private consultation or reach out directly at 905-863-7893 to schedule a personalized market review.
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