The real estate market is starting to move again.
And this time, the signal is getting harder to ignore.
TRREB’s latest update shows that home sales were up sharply compared to last year, while new listings were down.
That means more buyers are stepping back into the market — but fewer new homes are being listed.
This is the kind of shift that can quietly change the balance between buyers and sellers.
Here’s what happened in June, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling this year.
THE BIG PICTURE FROM TRREB (JUNE 2026)
TRREB says GTA housing market conditions continued to improve in June.
After a slower start to the year, the second quarter showed a clear improvement in sales.
TRREB also said this lines up with its 2026 outlook: a year with two very different halves.
The first half was more cautious.
The second half is expected to bring more transactions, more buyer competition, and eventually renewed price growth if conditions keep tightening.
In simple terms:
More buyers are returning, but supply is not rising with them.
WHAT THE GTA NUMBERS SHOW (JUNE 2026)
TRREB reported:
- 6,770 home sales, up 9.4% compared to June 2025
- 17,282 new listings, down 12.9% year-over-year
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark, down 5.4% year-over-year
- Average selling price: $1,058,658, down 3.9% compared to June 2025
Month-over-month, compared to May 2026:
- Sales were up
- New listings were down
- Both the average selling price and MLS® HPI Composite were up slightly
Translation: buyers still have some negotiating power, but the market is tightening. If this continues, prices may stop falling and begin to rise again.
WHY THIS MATTERS RIGHT NOW
For most of the year, buyers benefited from lower prices and more room to negotiate.
But June showed that the market is gaining traction.
Sales were stronger than last year, listings were lower, and prices started to edge up month-over-month.
That does not mean we are suddenly back in a hot market.
But it does mean the balance is changing.
Two things can be true at once:
- buyers may still have opportunities
- and those opportunities may become more competitive if more buyers return while fewer homes are listed
TRREB also noted that if conditions keep tightening in the second half of 2026, selling prices could move closer to 2025 levels and eventually post some increases.
That is the shift to watch.
📍 Local Snapshot: Bolton & Caledon
Bolton Market Snapshot (June 2026)
🏘 Towns: $868,380 | 33 DOM | 98.0% Ratio
🏠 Semis: $838,000 | 44 DOM | 98.7% Ratio
🏡 Detached 3 bed: $1,130,292 | 25 DOM | 97.3% Ratio 🏡
Detached 4+ bed: $1,148,643 | 28 DOM | 95.7% Ratio
Caledon Market Snapshot (June 2026)
🏘 Towns: $768,600 | 26 DOM | 100.9% Ratio
🏠 Semis: No Sales
🏡 Detached 3 bed: $1,168,500 | 42 DOM | 95.5% Ratio
🏡 Detached 4+ bed: $1,461,711 | 35.7 DOM | 97.8%
📍 Muskoka
Summer finally arrived with sunny days and weekend adventures of exploring the unique Muskoka stores and restaurants, chilling on the waterfront, exploring trails and simpler days. Muskoka welcomes back new friends and old. Memories are made and many fulfill their dreams of making the Muskoka lifestyle their year-round place to live. Non-waterfront home sales were 69 (76 in May), while waterfront sales rose to 59 (50 in May).
Muskoka Market Snapshot (June 2026)
🏘 Non-Waterfront: $630,000 | 25 DOM | 164 New Listings
🌊 Waterfront: $1,205,000 | 21 DOM | 200 New Listings
Regional Breakdown
Bracebridge
🏘️ Detached not on water: $757,567
🌊 Detached on water: $1,451,688
Georgian Bay
🏘️ Detached not on water: $622,500
🌊 Detached on water: $1,470,450
Gravenhurst
🏘️ Detached not on water: $600,020
🌊 Detached on water: $1,370,536
Huntsville
🏘️ Detached not on water: $673,544
🌊 Detached on water: $2,187,857
Lake of Bays
🏘️ Detached not on water: $777,100
🌊 Detached on water: $1,146,667
Muskoka Lakes
🏘️ Detached not on water: $664,200
🌊 Detached on water: $3,664,000
Market Insights: Is now the time to find your perfect Muskoka property? The Summer market is starting to heat up with some of the best prices in years. With fantastic properties on the market with new ones coming on daily, are you ready to actively begin your property search? Confirm the figures for your current buying power with your lender and learn about the areas you are interested in from a knowledgeable local agent. You need to be prepared when your dream property hits the market to make a confident, informed decision to move forward.
WHAT THIS MEANS IF YOU’RE BUYING
If you’re a buyer, there may still be opportunity — but the market is becoming less quiet.
You may still benefit from:
- prices that are lower than last year
- some room to negotiate
- more choice than the most competitive years
- sellers who are still open to serious, well-structured offers
But if sales keep rising and listings stay lower, the strongest homes may start moving faster.
That does not mean you need to rush.
It means you need to be ready.
The smartest buyers right now are getting clear on:
- budget
- location
- must-haves
- closing timeline
- where they are willing to compromise
So when the right home appears, they can make a confident decision.
WHAT THIS MEANS IF YOU’RE SELLING
If you’re selling, June’s update is encouraging.
More buyers are active.
But they are still careful.
They are watching price. They are comparing homes. They are negotiating when a listing feels overpriced.
That means strategy still matters.
The homes that perform best are the ones that are:
- priced properly from the start
- presented well
- marketed clearly
- positioned as a smart choice for today’s buyer
A tightening market does not mean sellers can overprice.
It means a well-prepared home may have more opportunity than it did earlier this year.
THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE REST OF 2026
The big question is no longer: Are buyers coming back?
They are. The bigger question is: Will enough homes come up for sale to meet that demand?
That is what we’ll be watching closely in the second half of the year. Because if sales keep improving and listings remain lower, the market could feel very different by late 2026 and into 2027.
Want the Best Next Step?
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in 2026, the most valuable thing you can know right now is what your exact home type and price range are doing—not just the average headline.
Book your private consultation or reach out directly at 905-863-7893 to schedule a personalized market review.
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