If you’ve been waiting for the market to “make sense” again, you’re not alone.
But TRREB’s latest February 2026 update points to something important that many buyers and sellers will miss: the market may be getting tighter before it starts getting busier.
That doesn’t mean we’ve suddenly flipped into a hot market.
It means the balance is shifting—and if listing supply stays lower through spring, buyers may lose some of the negotiating power they’ve been enjoying.
Here’s what TRREB reported, and what it means in real life.
THE BIG PICTURE FROM TRREB (FEBRUARY 2026)
TRREB says GTA resale market conditions tightened in February 2026 compared to February 2025.
Why? Because while sales were still down year-over-year, new listings dropped even more sharply.
That matters.
When supply shrinks faster than demand, even a cautious market can start moving toward more competition.
WHAT THE GTA NUMBERS SHOW (FEBRUARY 2026)
TRREB reported:
- 3,868 home sales, down 6.3% compared to February 2025
- 10,705 new listings, down 17.7% year-over-year
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark, down 7.9% year-over-year
- Average selling price: $1,008,968, down 7.1% compared to February 2025
On a seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings were down month-over-month compared to January 2026, but listings declined at a faster rate.
Translation: buyers still have leverage today—but that leverage depends on supply staying elevated. If listings continue to trend lower, the tone of the market changes.
WHY THIS MATTERS MORE THAN LAST MONTH
Last month’s story was mostly about hesitation.
This month’s story is about hesitation + tightening supply.
TRREB also pointed to Ipsos polling showing listing intentions are down for 2026, which lines up with what February delivered: fewer new listings entering the market.
That means two things can be true at once:
- buyers are still cautious
- and competition can still build if inventory keeps shrinking
TRREB also says there are more than 100,000 buyers holding off on making a purchase right now.
If selling prices level off and we get better news on the economic/trade front, that demand could return quickly in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
📍 Local Snapshot: Bolton & Caledon
Bolton Market Snapshot
🏘 Towns: $840,833 | 47.2 DOM | 97.3%
🏠 Semis: $879,875 | 12.8 DOM | 100.5%
🏡 Detached 3 bed: $889,000 | 45 DOM | 94%
🏡 Detached 4+ bed: $1,130,650 | 25.4 DOM | 97.6%
Caledon Market Snapshot
🏘 Towns: $784,991 | 39.5 DOM | 96.9%
🏠 Semis: $910,000 | 9.3 DOM | 97.7%
🏡 Detached 3 bed: $1,060,000 | 31 DOM | 93.2%
🏡 Detached 4+ bed: $1,260,464 | 53.6 DOM | 95.6%
📍 Muskoka
As I type this we are now into March and loving the change in weather. Longer days and warmer temperatures are getting folks outdoors and dreaming about Spring. Regardless of the season, Buyers are looking to Muskoka for their personal piece of heaven. Non-waterfront home sales were up slightly with 37 (32 in January), while waterfront sales remained the same with 7 (7 in January).
Why should I act now??? As the temperatures warm up so does the real estate market. With fantastic properties on the market with new ones coming on the system daily for 2026, it’s time to actively begin your property search, confirm your figures for your current buying power with your lender and learn about the areas you are interested in from knowledgeable local agents. You need to be prepared when your dream property hits the market to make a confident, informed decision to move forward.
Thinking of selling? It’s time to begin planning, getting the inside of your home ready. Give thought to where you would like to be and even on time frames for those next steps.
Buyers are actively searching, and often folks wonder about the sale price compared to the asking price. We give it in % which often helps buyers budget what they might be paying for their dream property. For February the Sale to List ratio was 97.3% (96.8%)* for non-waterfront and 95.8% (95.9% ) * for waterfront properties.
What This Means If You’re Buying in 2026
If you’re a buyer, there is still opportunity—but the window may not stay as wide open as it has been.
Right now, you’re still benefiting from:
- more choice than we saw in peak years
- room to negotiate in many segments
- less emotional pressure than a true spring rush
But if listings continue to fall and more buyers step back in, the best opportunities won’t feel “obvious” for long.
The smartest buyers in this market aren’t trying to predict the perfect week.
They’re getting prepared now so they can move confidently when the right property appears.
What This Means If You’re Selling in 2026
If you’re selling, this market still rewards strategy over luck.
Buyers are careful. They compare more. They negotiate more.
But if listing supply stays lower through spring, well-positioned homes could benefit from less competition than many sellers expected.
That means:
- pricing still needs to make sense from day one
- presentation still matters
- and strong marketing matters even more when buyers are selective
A tighter market does not mean you can overprice.
It means smart sellers may have a stronger stage than they realize.
THE REAL QUESTION FOR SPRING 2026
The big question isn’t just “Will buyers come back?”
It’s: Will enough listings come to market if they do?
That’s what we’ll be watching closely.
Because if confidence improves while inventory stays constrained, the second half of 2026 could look very different from the first.
WANT THE BEST NEXT STEP?
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in 2026, the most valuable thing you can know right now is what your exact home type and price range are doing—not just the average headline.
Book your private consultation or reach out directly at 905-863-7893 to schedule a personalized market review.
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