As we move into the first stretch of 2026, I’m hearing the same sentence on repeat:
“We’ll just wait until spring.”
And I get it. Spring feels safer.
But TRREB’s newest year-end report (just released January 7, 2026) makes something clear: The market already shifted in 2025 — and that shift is what creates opportunity before the crowd comes back.
Below is the big picture, what it means locally, and how to think about 2026 if you’re buying, selling, or investing.
The Big Picture From TRREB (Year-end 2025)
TRREB’s headline: 2025 ended with a more affordable market — and it sets the stage for recovery.
Why? Two things happened at the same time:
- Economic uncertainty kept many buyers cautious (confidence was the limiter).
- Inventory stayed elevated, giving buyers options and negotiating power — which pushed prices lower and improved affordability.
What the GTA numbers show (Full-Year 2025)
- 62,433 home sales (down 11.2% vs 2024)
- 186,753 new listings (up 10.1% year-over-year) (increase in number of homes on the market)
- $1,067,968 average selling price in 2025 (down 4.7% vs 2024)
Translation: more choice + less urgency = more negotiating leverage for buyers.
December 2025: How The Year Finished
December was a perfect snapshot of the year’s theme: a market that’s active, but selective.
- 3,697 sales (down 8.9% vs Dec 2024)
- 5,299 new listings (up 1.8% year-over-year)
- HPI benchmark down 6.3% year-over-year
- Average selling price: $1,006,735 (down 5.1% vs Dec 2024)
TRREB’s key message going into 2026: affordability improved — but confidence is still the switch that turns activity back on.
Okay… What Does This Mean For Our Local Markets?
You’ll see the Bolton – Caledon – Muskoka Markets breakdown in the infographic below (segmented by townhomes, semis, and detached by bedroom count).
The reason I like showing it this way is simple: buyers don’t behave the same across every home type. What’s happening in one segment can look completely different in another — and that’s where smart strategy lives.
📍 Market Highlights: Bolton & Caledon
Bolton Market Snapshot
🏘 Towns: $770K | 18 DOM | 100% of list
🏠 Semis: $838K | 24 DOM | 95% of list
🏡 Detached 3 bed: $968K | 38 DOM | 94.6% of list
🏡 Detached 4 plus bed: $1.16M | 36 DOM | 96% of list
Caledon Market Snapshot
🏘 Towns: $815K | 42 DOM | 101% of list
🏠 Semis: $869K | 33 DOM | 96% of list
🏡 Detached 3 bed: $1.158M | 34 DOM | 97% of list
🏡 Detached 4 plus bed: $1.639M | 43 DOM | 94% of list
📍 Muskoka
Winter has arrived and while some folks retreat indoors, others begin to dust off the skis, skates and snowshoes. Dig out the hats and mitts, Muskoka doesn’t shut down when the temperatures drop, we get out and play! Non-waterfront home sales were seasonally lower at 33 (39 in November), while waterfront sales reflected the season change at 9 (39 in November). Regardless of the season, Buyers are looking to Muskoka for their personal piece of heaven.
It’s winter, why should I act now??? Real estate activity may slow but never stops and there are still not only fantastic properties on the market but new ones coming on the system as well for 2026. It’s time to consider beginning your property search and learn about the areas you are interested in from knowledgeable local agents who can help guide you to discover the hidden treasures buried beneath the snow.
Buyers are actively searching, and often folks wonder about the sale price compared to the asking price. We give it in % which often helps buyers budget what they might be paying for their dream property. For December the Sale to List ratio was 96.7% (95.8% )* for non waterfront and 94.5% (94.0% ) * for waterfront properties.
Muskoka continues to be one of the most requested lifestyle moves we see — and winter can be an underrated time to explore it because:
- it’s typically a calmer market
- showings are more intentional
- negotiation can be more realistic when sellers are motivated
If Muskoka is even a “maybe” for your 2026 plan — we can connect you with our team partner who focuses on the entire Muskoka area and help you map out a strategy that fits your lifestyle (and your numbers).
The Truth About “Waiting Until Spring”
Spring isn’t automatically “better.” It’s often just busier.
Here’s what usually happens when confidence returns:
- More buyers re-enter at the same time → competition rises quickly
- Sellers list because they assume spring is best → inventory spikes
- The best homes move fast, and the market starts rewarding decisiveness again
So winter doesn’t mean “nothing happens.” It often means:
fewer eyeballs, more leverage, and more room to negotiate — if you’re prepared.
Waiting isn’t wrong… but it’s not automatically safer.
What This Means If You’re Buying
If you’re a buyer, 2025 created conditions we didn’t have during peak cycles:
- More selection
- More time to analyze
- More negotiation flexibility
And here’s the part most people miss:
the best buying windows often happen right before confidence becomes obvious.
If you’re thinking about making a move in 2026, the goal isn’t predicting the perfect week — it’s getting positioned so you can act when the right property appears.
What This Means If You’re Selling
If you’re selling in this market, the winning formula is not “hope.”
It’s:
- Hiring a professional, knowledgeable, experienced agents (like us) who have been through every real estate cycle for the past 20 years
- pricing correctly from day one
- presentation that makes the home feel like a confident choice
- marketing that reaches beyond the obvious buyers (because today’s buyer pool is choosier)
Buyers are still buying — but they’re doing it with a calculator, not adrenaline.
Investor Corner: Holiday Homes + Income Properties (Local & International)
I’m getting more questions again about:
vacation properties, short-term rentals, and “smart” income buys — both here and abroad.
Why the renewed interest?
- Global travel demand continues to grow, which supports well-located vacation markets when the numbers work.
- A more negotiable resale environment can improve entry points.
- But the rules matter more than ever — especially for short-term rentals.
If you’re considering a holiday home or income property, here are the 3 filters that matter most:
- Cashflow reality (not best-case projections)
- Local regulations & licensing (every municipality plays differently)
- Your lifestyle plan (use it + rent it vs purely investment)
Internationally: there can be upside, but the “easy” part ends fast without the right guidance — financing, taxes, and local rules vary widely. If this is on your radar, let’s talk through your shortlist and build a smart checklist first.
If you are planning your next move, let’s have a conversation about your specific situation. Together, we can review the data, timing, and steps that will protect your equity and position you for success in this evolving market.
Book your private consultation or reach out directly at 905-863-7893 to schedule a personalized market review.
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